2011-based household projections for local authorities in Wales, 2011 to 2036

Welsh Government

Last update: 27 February 2014
Was added to StatsWales: 27 February 2014

Next update: Will be replaced by a future projection
Will be added to StatsWales: Will be replaced by a future projection

Source: 2011-based household projections for Wales, Welsh Government
Contact: stats.housing@wales.gsi.gov.uk / ystadegau.tai@cymru.gsi.gov.uk

This dataset provides household projections for local authorities in Wales by household type from the base year of 2011, through the projection period to 2036. This is the third set of household projections published for the 22 local authorities in Wales, but the first set to take into account the results of the 2011 Census.

Unlike previous previous projections the figures at the local authority level are wholly consistent with the Wales data, whereas in previous years the Wales data has been calculated independently of the local authority estimates with minor differences.

Data are calculated using a methodology which uses the 2011 to 2036 population projections data published previously along with information on household structure from the 2011 Census. For more information on the methodology, please see the statistical release linked below.

The methodology was developed in conjunction with the Wales Sub-national Household Projections (WASHP) Working Group. Members of WASHP include representatives with experience of demographic and housing data from Welsh local authorities, the Local Government Data Unit and the Welsh Government.

Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change. They are merely an indication of what would happen if certain assumptions were realised.

Four migration variants are also calculated and included here, covering different migration scenarios, ranging from a zero migration estimate, to a low estimate, to a high estimate. A further estimate based on projecting forward the average migration patterns over the last ten years is also available.

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

For further information please see the local authority / national park household projections statistical release: http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/household-projections/?lang=en.

Households; projections

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