Population Estimates by Ethnic Group, gender and local authority

Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government

Was added to StatsWales: February 2010.
Last update: May 2011
Contact: : stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Important Note on the Reliability of Estimates for Subnational Areas

These estimates are experimental statistics and should therefore be used with appropriate caution and awareness of their limitations. Users are advised to be cautious in interpreting estimates for subnational areas, particularly in areas with high internal migration flows. For further information please see: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/product.asp?vlnk=14238

2002-2007 population estimates by ethnic group were revised on May 18th 2011 by the Office of National Statistics. These revisions were due to methodological improvements.

Figures are rounded to the nearest hundred and, as such, any zeros may not be true zeros.
Figures may not add exactly due to rounding.

Population Estimates by ethnic group are experimental statistics. This means that they have not yet been shown to meet the quality criteria for National Statistics, but are being published to involve users in the development of the methodology and to help build quality at an early stage.

Population estimates by ethnic group for Wales are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) using a cohort component method. This requires the estimation of the base population, ageing the population on, adding births, subtracting deaths and adjusting for migration. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address.
It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used – those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (e.g. migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates.
Adjustments are also made for some special population groups - armed forces, prisoners and pupils in boarding schools. These populations have specific age structures, which remain fairly constant over time. Therefore these groups are not aged-on with the rest of the population.

The base population used is the 2001 census count by single year of age, sex and ethnic group. Differences in fertility between ethnic groups and differences in propensities to migrate for each ethnic
group are also estimated from the 2001 census. Estimates of international migration combine census information on country of birth and ethnic group with other data (e.g. the International Passenger
Survey) on country of birth or nationality of the migrant for the year in question.
Consideration is given to the modelling of the ethnic dimension of mortality, fertility (and the allocation of ethnic group to infants), switching between ethnic group categories, and the various aspects of migration, with particular attention given to the application of specially commissioned census data.
Data is constrained to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) national and local mid-year population estimates.

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