Teitl

2014-based national population projections for Wales, 2014-2039

Diweddariad diwethaf

29 Hydref 2015 29 Hydref 2015

Diweddariad nesaf

Not updated, this will be replaced by a future projection.

Sefydliad cyhoeddi

Llywodraeth Cymru

Ffynhonnell 1

Amcanestyniadau poblogaeth cenedlaethol ar gyfer Cymru ar sail 2014, y Swyddfa Ystadegau Gwladol

Cyswllt ebost

ystadegau.poblogaeth@cymru.gsi.gov.uk

Dynodiad

Ystadegau Gwladol

Lefel isaf o ddadelfennu daearyddol

Cymru

Cwmpas daearyddol

Cymru

Cwmpas ieithyddol

Saesneg yn unig

Trwyddedu data

Gallwch ddefnyddio ac ailddefnyddio'r data hwn am ddim mewn unrhyw fformat neu gyfrwng, dan delerau'r Drwydded Llywodraeth Agored - gweler http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence-cymraeg

Disgrifiad cyffredinol

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces national population projections for Wales, and the other UK countries. This dataset provides the Wales data from that source by gender, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2014, through the projection period to 2039. Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

The national projections and the local authority projections are different for two main reasons:

1. The methodology used to produce assumptions in the local authority projections are different to those used in the national projections. Some of these are due to slightly different data sources. Also, although one set of assumptions may fit well for a national trend, using similar assumptions may not always produce feasible results for all local authority areas because of the different nature and trends between local authorities.

2. The geographical level for which the assumptions are based and applied is also important. For example, it is not appropriate to sum local rates (eg fertility) to derive a national rate, and therefore a model operating at different geographic levels (but using rates) will produce different results for the different geographic levels.

Note these figures differ from the Wales data in the local authority population projections. This is because the key aim of the local authority population projections is to produce robust local authority population projections for Wales, which reflect local trends in recent years. The main purpose of the national projections is to produce robust population projections for Wales which reflect national trends in recent years.

Casgliad data a dull cyfrifo

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change. Note there are methodological differences between the 2014 national projections and the 2012 projections, see weblinks for details.

The 2014 national population estimates have been used as the base for these national projections. The projected population is for 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

Amlder cyhoeddi

Bob dwy flynedd

Cyfnodau data dan sylw

Data are published for the period 2014 to 2039.

Defnyddwyr, defnydd a chyd-destun

See weblinks.

Talgrynnu wedi'u ddefnyddio

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly. Mean and median ages are rounded to 2 decimal places and are not additive.

Gwybodaeth am ddiwygiadau

This data replaced the 2012 national population projections for Wales as the formal estimates of population growth.

Ansawdd ystadegol

See weblinks.

Dolenni'r we

National population projections: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2014-based-projections/index.html; http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/quality/quality-information/population/quality-and-methodology-information-for-national-population-projections.pdf;
Local authority population projections statistical release: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/local-authority-population-projections/?lang=en

Allweddeiriau

Population projections; population growth; migration; natural change; births; deaths

Enw

POPU5032